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2009年3月31日 日本の徒労:骨折り損のくたびれ儲け。英語版


A complete abortion in Japan.Japanese made vain efforts on economic growth.

Japanese government announced  at the beginning of feburary that period of increased boom was from feburary in 2002 to october in 2007 and discribed the longest boom after world war second . 

but,can we say that this is real increased boom ?
I don't think so at all.
Because debts are still growing and nominal wages are naw still decreasing.
For this 5 years it has been especialy conpicuous to become lower income .Bankrupt and suicide people from economic hardship have been increasing sharply for this period. 

Personal income has lowerd as well as debts of government has increased.Japan has produced a lot of products for this period but reduced income.We have to say we went through work with getting in the red  .This is not growth of economy at all,this is just wasting economy.

Particularity of growth for this term

1,Rate of growth is very small.About 2% of real growth has lasted long and there is no clear peak as like a gentle hill.
2,For this term nominal growth value always has been lowered than real growth value.
3,What the most noticeable thing is ,is that nominal employee income in first of this term more than  its income in last of this term. 
Income in start of term is higher than income in last this term.
the feature
1,diminishing nominal income ,
2,reverse of nominal and real growth value
3,low rate of growth

Especially,the decline of nominal income means the  product curve gose down to the right direction.
It's evidently proved from that japanese nominal income lowered to the 19th country in the world.
And phenomenon of reverse of nominal and real growth value expressed that increase of income diminishes to compared with increase of products.

Why the rate of growth is small is that the amount of sale inland is falling down by decline of
income with stagnates consumption .But from booming foreign demand ,the amount of production for export has widely increased.Declining inland demand ,
japanese economy turned into a economy depending on foreign demond .

Why these things happened is that the amount of money largely reduced as compared with capacity of products and consumption is strapped .
For that reason the angle of income line declines less than 45degree and the rate between amount of money and production falls less than 1.
I call these economic situation as deflation.It's not the resession by the gap of demand and supply ,It's the resession by the gap between amount of money and amount of production.
Demands for production surely exist,but we only can not buy products with no momney. 

During this growth period ,the largy parts of politics japanese governmemt took were easy money policy by lowest interest and too much monetary ease ,and a lot of different subsidy for promotion of employment,development of study,reform of structure and so on. These all things were to preced in only producers and to stimulate production to promote increase of production.


From financial difficulties government's investments for public were conservative and politics for increasing consumption have been taken hardly.On the contrary from the failure of pension scheme even the insurance premium were raised and the pension were reduced
according to declining of prices of commodities.
and also the injection of public fund into banks and bailout for  merger of banks deprived still more money from markets(heartland).Because of banks withdrawing maney from firms . 
By this reason reciprocal relationships between firms and banks ruined and only banks survived,many firms around banks failed.As a result banks fell a lot of firms to loan and has been still in fragile situation .

And low interest is extremely advantageous to banks and the primary benefits of depositors are lost.This causes to restrain consumption and not to recover consumption at all. 
Eventually in deflation too much manetary ease policy by lower interest stimulates production and increases amount of production ,but operates revers against consumption .Revival of consumption can not be accomplished , sales of businesses don't grow and it is also a reason why income of individuals don't grow. 

 We can say that low interest policy in the deflation is on the political failure from the start.  このように日本の2千2年から2千7年の成長と言われる期間中においては、消費額が全く増えない状況で、生産量を刺激するための資金が生産者の方へ無節操に流れたのである。その結果が、このような生産量が増えても資金量が減り名目所得が減少するようなおかしな景気拡大をもたらしたのである。
Like this growth tells ,during japanese growth from february 2002 to octover 2007 is under situation where amount of consumption could not increase at all ,political money for to stimulate production flew to producer unlimitedly.
that resulted in strange economic growth that even though production increased,nominal income reduced and amount of money reduced too.   

Increase of production didn't get nominal income  increased.On the contrary It got nominal income decreased.
Consequently because  individual burden like tax didn't decrease or increased , money of markets still now has been reducing . 

Under these economy the policy of making a point of supply side and increasing production up makes nominal income by contrary lower and money diminished.This latest japanese economical growth definitely shows those things and it has made japanese people  poorer and accelerates  japanese deflation deeper.    

Finaly japan has ended up working poor.

This means that the theory of J.M. keinz like stimulating production with finacial resource dosen't work.
The income line of deflation becomes to low angleless than amount of save money.This means that all debts surpass all saving money .The multiplier theory doesn't work without save money.
In order to solve this deflation we have to lift the angle of income line. For that reason we need to take some policies to shift the money to consumer side and to increase consumption.

I can say surly
that in the economical situation of the angle of income line under less than 45degree , when we would pore money into markets ,we can rather increase  more amount of  production than added amount of money increase .and we can lift the angle of income line. 

kainz theory concluded that public investment would be better even if financial balance would become in the red.

But I can say like the same that when in the deflation we had better deliver money to consumers even if finance gets red.

This is almost the same thing that consumer tax cuts.
 To cut consumer tax ,to low down expressway charge ,to cut gas tax,to give subcidy to lower income home than income of social security,to raise saving rate and low loan rate.  
These things are natural and reasenable economic policies in deflation .We have to make policy change at once.

written by hitokotonusi
please refer to General theory of deflation and inflation